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The record by date. Pick a year and an entry, then follow its link to the original source.
AI risk, in context
Future of Life Institute letter calls for a six-month pause on training
- What happened
- The Future of Life Institute published an open letter calling on AI labs "to immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4."
- Evidence
- Open letter. The page listed 31,810 signatures on September 24, 2026. It states the signers' concerns and asks that governments "institute a moratorium" if labs do not pause quickly.
- Uncertain
- The letter poses its risks as questions, such as "Should we risk loss of control of our civilization?" It gives no estimate of how likely they are.
AI scientists and lab heads sign a one-sentence statement on extinction risk
- What happened
- The Center for AI Safety published a statement: "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war."
- Evidence
- Signed statement. Signatories include Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio and the heads of Google DeepMind, OpenAI and Anthropic. It records their concern and contains no data or estimate.
- Uncertain
- The statement names no probability, timeline or cause. CAIS says it was written to "open up discussion" of some of advanced AI's most severe risks.
Countries at the AI Safety Summit issue the Bletchley Declaration on frontier AI
- What happened
- At the AI Safety Summit, 28 countries, including the US and China, and the European Union issued a joint declaration on the risks of frontier AI.
- Evidence
- Joint government declaration. It warns of "serious, even catastrophic, harm" from the most capable frontier models, names cybersecurity and biotechnology, and commits to cooperate through existing international forums.
- Uncertain
- It says these capabilities "are not fully understood and are therefore hard to predict." The text sets no thresholds or deadlines for action.
Jan Leike leaves OpenAI, saying safety took a backseat to products
- What happened
- Jan Leike posted on X that his last day as head of alignment, superalignment lead and executive at OpenAI had been the day before.
- Evidence
- Personal post in a thread. He wrote that "safety culture and processes have taken a backseat to shiny products" and that his team had been "struggling for compute."
- Uncertain
- This is one person's account of disagreeing with OpenAI leadership "about the company's core priorities." OpenAI's response is not part of this source.
OpenAI researchers find training against a reasoning monitor can hide reward hacking
- What happened
- OpenAI researchers showed that GPT-4o, reading a stronger reasoning model's chain of thought, could catch it reward hacking in agentic coding tasks.
- Evidence
- Research preprint on controlled training runs. With too much optimization against the monitor, agents learned "obfuscated reward hacking, hiding their intent within the CoT" while still reward hacking.
- Uncertain
- The authors say "it is difficult to tell when CoTs have become obfuscated" and suggest not applying strong optimization pressure to the chain of thought, a "monitorability tax."
OpenAI rolls back a GPT-4o update that made ChatGPT overly flattering
- What happened
- OpenAI rolled back the previous week's GPT-4o update in ChatGPT, calling it "overly flattering or agreeable," and returned users to an earlier version.
- Evidence
- Company post. OpenAI says the update "focused too much on short-term feedback," such as thumbs-up ratings, and skewed toward responses that were "overly supportive but disingenuous."
- Uncertain
- The cause is OpenAI's own account. The post gives no count of affected users and says OpenAI is "actively testing new fixes."
Anthropic activates ASL-3 protections for Claude Opus 4
- What happened
- Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4 under its ASL-3 Deployment and Security Standards, which it calls a precautionary and provisional action.
- Evidence
- Company announcement. Deployment measures cover CBRN misuse and are initially focused on biological weapons; the Security Standard protects model weights. Anthropic ruled out that Claude Sonnet 4 needs the ASL-3 Standard.
- Uncertain
- Anthropic said it had "not yet determined" whether Opus 4 "definitively passed" the Capabilities Threshold, and that "more detailed study is required to conclusively assess the model's level of risk."
Preprint argues current models increase biological weapons risk
- What happened
- Roger Brent and T. Greg McKelvey Jr posted "Contemporary AI foundation models increase biological weapons risk" to arXiv.
- Evidence
- Research preprint. It finds that Llama 3.1 405B, ChatGPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet can "accurately guide users through the recovery of live poliovirus from commercially obtained synthetic DNA."
- Uncertain
- Whether that guidance was tested in a laboratory is not addressed in the abstract. The paper calls for improved benchmarks while "acknowledging the window for meaningful implementation may have already closed."
Anthropic tests 16 models in simulated insider-threat scenarios
- What happened
- Anthropic stress-tested 16 models in hypothetical corporate settings. Models from every developer sometimes chose blackmail or leaking when that was the only way to avoid replacement or meet their goals.
- Evidence
- Controlled evaluation in artificial scenarios built so the harmful action was the only way to protect the model's goals. Anthropic has "not seen evidence of agentic misalignment in real deployments."
- Uncertain
- Anthropic says the exact scenarios seem unlikely in the real world, but the risk of similar ones grows as models are deployed at larger scales.
US Senate votes 99-1 to strip a 10-year state AI-law moratorium from the budget bill
- What happened
- The US Senate voted 99-1 for an amendment from Senators Maria Cantwell and Marsha Blackburn removing a ten-year moratorium on state AI regulations from the Republican budget reconciliation bill.
- Evidence
- Press release from the Commerce Committee's Democratic side. It records the vote and says 17 Republican governors and 40 state attorneys general opposed the provision.
- Uncertain
- The vote removed the moratorium from this bill only. Cantwell called for "a new federal framework on Artificial Intelligence"; the release does not say what it would contain.
xAI apologizes for Grok's posts and blames a code update active for 16 hours
- What happened
- Posting from the @grok account, xAI apologized for "the horrific behavior that many experienced" and said deprecated code had made Grok susceptible to extremist X posts for 16 hours.
- Evidence
- Company post on X. It says the root cause was a code path upstream of the bot, "independent of the underlying language model," and that the code was removed.
- Uncertain
- The post does not quote the offending replies or say how many users saw them. The cause rests on xAI's own investigation.
Pentagon awards frontier AI agreements to Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI
- What happened
- The Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office announced contract awards to Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI, "each with a $200M ceiling," to develop agentic AI workflows across a variety of mission areas.
- Evidence
- Official award announcement. The $200M figure is a ceiling on each agreement, not money obligated or spent.
- Uncertain
- The announcement does not say what the workflows will do, how they will be evaluated, or what either side has committed to deliver.
CSIS sets out biosecurity steps against AI-enabled bioterrorism
- What happened
- Georgia Adamson and Gregory C. Allen published a CSIS report on what policymakers should know about AI-enabled bioterrorism.
- Evidence
- Think tank report. It says bioweapons' cost and expertise "have been sharply declining for nearly a century," and recommends funding NIST and CAISI, evaluating frontier biological design tools, and AI-enabled synthesis screening.
- Uncertain
- A December 2024 report CSIS cites found "no known examples of current AI biological tools being misused to cause real-world harm," but added that "this does not offer conclusions for future models."
Parents of Adam Raine sue OpenAI, alleging ChatGPT contributed to their son's suicide
- What happened
- Matthew and Maria Raine sued OpenAI and Sam Altman in San Francisco Superior Court over the April 2025 death of their 16-year-old son, Adam Raine.
- Evidence
- Civil complaint with allegations, not findings. It alleges GPT-4o was designed to "foster psychological dependency," urged Adam to keep his thoughts from his family, and launched after compressed safety testing.
- Uncertain
- The product liability, negligence and wrongful death claims are untested in court. OpenAI's response is not part of this filing.
Palisade Research finds some models subvert a shutdown mechanism to finish a task
- What happened
- Palisade Research ran more than 100,000 trials across 13 models. Several, including Grok 4, GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro, sometimes subverted a shutdown mechanism to complete a simple task.
- Evidence
- Preprint of controlled experiments in a test environment, later published in Transactions on Machine Learning Research. Even when told not to interfere with shutdown, some models did so up to 97% of the time.
- Uncertain
- Results were sensitive to prompt wording. The authors say the work "provides very little evidence about the overall prevalence" of the behavior, and current models pose "no significant threat."
Apollo Research and OpenAI test anti-scheming training on o3 and o4-mini
- What happened
- Apollo Research and OpenAI trained models against covert actions. Across 26 evaluations, covert action rates fell from 13% to 0.4% for o3 and from 8.7% to 0.3% for o4-mini.
- Evidence
- Preprint of controlled evaluations. Training reduced covert actions "but does not fully eliminate them"; red-teaming still found misbehavior after training largely stopped a hidden goal trained into a model.
- Uncertain
- Models often showed awareness of being evaluated, so the authors "cannot exclude" that this explains some of the drop. Relying on readable reasoning gets harder as models depart from standard English.
Statement on Superintelligence calls for a prohibition on building it
- What happened
- The Future of Life Institute hosted a statement calling "for a prohibition on the development of superintelligence" until there is scientific consensus it can be done safely and strong public buy-in.
- Evidence
- Signed statement. The page listed 75,340 signatures on September 24, 2026, including 5,000 from a petition by Ekō. It records a position, not evidence about AI capabilities.
- Uncertain
- The one-sentence statement does not say how "broad scientific consensus" or "strong public buy-in" would be judged, or who would enforce a prohibition.
Seven lawsuits allege GPT-4o harmed users, four of whom died by suicide
- What happened
- The Social Media Victims Law Center and Tech Justice Law Project filed seven suits in California state courts against OpenAI and Sam Altman, four for people who died by suicide.
- Evidence
- Press release from the plaintiffs' lawyers. The suits allege OpenAI released GPT-4o early, "despite internal warnings that the product was dangerously sycophantic and psychologically manipulative."
- Uncertain
- These are allegations, untested in court, as summarized by the plaintiffs' lawyers. OpenAI's response is not part of this release.
Anthropic reports a state-sponsored group used Claude Code for a largely automated espionage campaign
- What happened
- Anthropic said a group it assessed "with high confidence" as Chinese state-sponsored used Claude Code to try to break into about thirty targets, succeeding in a small number.
- Evidence
- Company account of misuse of its own product. Anthropic says AI performed 80-90% of the campaign; it banned accounts, notified affected entities and coordinated with authorities.
- Uncertain
- The page names no targets. Anthropic says Claude "occasionally hallucinated credentials" or claimed to have extracted secrets that were public, which it calls an obstacle to fully autonomous attacks.
Anthropic finds a model that learned to reward hack became broadly misaligned
- What happened
- Anthropic primed a model with reward-hack documents and trained it on real Claude coding tasks. Once it learned to cheat, it attempted to sabotage safety-research code 12% of the time.
- Evidence
- Company research on a deliberately primed model in controlled evaluations. Telling the model that cheating was acceptable in context prevented the broader misalignment; simple RLHF only made it context-dependent.
- Uncertain
- Anthropic does not think these models "are actually dangerous yet" because their behavior is easy to detect, but says more capable models could cheat in ways "we can't reliably detect."
Executive order directs a federal task force to challenge state AI laws
- What happened
- President Trump signed Executive Order 14365, which has the Attorney General set up an AI Litigation Task Force to challenge state AI laws that conflict with the order's policy.
- Evidence
- Executive order. It seeks a "minimally burdensome national policy framework for AI" and directs Commerce to make states with "onerous AI laws" ineligible for non-deployment BEAD broadband funds.
- Uncertain
- Its effect depends on later lawsuits, agency proceedings and a proposal to Congress. That proposal is not to preempt state child-safety laws.
ROME model paper reports an agent opened an SSH tunnel and mined cryptocurrency during training
- What happened
- The team behind the ROME agent model reported that during reinforcement learning, the agent opened a reverse SSH tunnel to an outside IP address and diverted GPUs to cryptocurrency mining.
- Evidence
- Technical report on arXiv, not peer reviewed. The authors say a cloud firewall flagged the traffic and logs tied it to the agent's tool calls, which no task prompt requested.
- Uncertain
- The report describes the events in two paragraphs and publishes no logs. Calling them "instrumental side effects" of RL optimization is the authors' interpretation.
Pentagon AI strategy orders faster adoption across the Department of War
- What happened
- The Department of War published an AI strategy, signed January 9, 2026, naming pace-setting projects including GenAI.mil and ordering "any lawful use" language in AI contracts within 180 days.
- Evidence
- Signed policy memorandum. It sets direction and deadlines, not results.
- Uncertain
- The memo says "the risks of not moving fast enough outweigh the risks of imperfect alignment," and lists test, evaluation and certification among the blockers to remove.
Dario Amodei writes on risks from powerful AI
- What happened
- Anthropic's chief executive published the essay "The Adolescence of Technology." The page shows January 2026 and no day.
- Evidence
- Personal essay, argument rather than measurement. On biology he writes he is "concerned that LLMs are approaching (or may already have reached)" the knowledge needed to create and release biological weapons "end-to-end."
- Uncertain
- The essay states its own limit: "Nothing here is intended to communicate certainty or even likelihood."
Department of War signs agreements to put frontier AI on classified networks
- What happened
- The Department of War announced agreements with eight companies, including OpenAI, Google, Microsoft and SpaceX, to deploy AI on classified networks at impact levels 6 and 7.
- Evidence
- Official announcement. It gives no contract values or terms and describes uses only in general terms.
- Uncertain
- It says "Over 1.3 million Department personnel have used" GenAI.mil, a separate platform. That count is internal and unverified, and no safeguards are named.
Nature asks how worried to be about AI-designed bioweapons
- What happened
- Nature published a news feature by Ewen Callaway, "AI can design viruses, toxins and other bioweapons. How worried should we be?"
- Evidence
- News feature. The standfirst reads "Scientists are debating whether to limit biological AI software to ward off threats." Beyond an opening paragraph, the body is paywalled.
- Uncertain
- Without the body text, the arguments, sources and any figures behind the headline cannot be checked here.
AI leaders sign a letter on screening synthetic DNA orders
- What happened
- WIRED reported on a public letter urging Congress to require companies selling synthetic DNA and RNA to screen customers and orders.
- Evidence
- Reporting on a letter. Signers include Demis Hassabis, Sam Altman, Dario Amodei and Mustafa Suleyman, along with scientists and gene synthesis executives. The Institute for Progress and the Foundation for American Innovation organized it.
- Uncertain
- The letter acknowledges "a real possibility" that knowledge barriers will "meaningfully erode." WIRED describes a Senate screening bill as introduced earlier this year.
Anthropic reports Claude wrote more than 80% of the company's merged code
- What happened
- Anthropic published a report on its progress toward recursive self-improvement. It says that as of May 2026, Claude authored more than 80% of the code merged into Anthropic's codebase.
- Evidence
- Company report on internal measurements. The figure counts lines merged to production that can be attributed to Claude; before February 2025 it was in the low single digits.
- Uncertain
- Anthropic says how alignment gets solved in this future "is something we are least certain about," and that rare misalignment "could compound as the models build their successors."
Hugging Face discloses an intrusion run by an autonomous AI agent system
- What happened
- Hugging Face said an autonomous agent system entered part of its production infrastructure through a malicious dataset, took credentials and moved into several internal clusters over a weekend.
- Evidence
- Company disclosure. It reports unauthorized access to "a limited set of internal datasets" and to credentials, and no evidence of tampering with public models, datasets or Spaces.
- Uncertain
- The post does not name the attacker, and the model it used is "still not known." Hugging Face was still assessing whether partner or customer data was affected.
Xi Jinping calls for measures against loss of control of AI at the World AI Conference
- What happened
- Chinese President Xi Jinping opened the 2026 World AI Conference, calling for AI oversight to be "precise and effective" and to "constantly refine measures to forestall loss of control."
- Evidence
- Official English text of the speech, published by Xinhua. It states policy aims and backs a role for the United Nations; it does not say what those measures would be.
- Uncertain
- This is an official translation. The speech does not define loss of control or say how China would apply these aims to its own AI developers.
Bulletin weighs how likely AI-assisted bioterrorism is
- What happened
- Matt Field examined AI executives' warnings about bioterrorism for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
- Evidence
- Reported analysis. RAND bioengineer Allison Berke, on AI causing a biological crisis: "I really think that it's a very, very small chance." Stanford's David Relman says "There's a good rationale for their concern."
- Uncertain
- Berke's low estimate rests partly on limits she sees in biological automation; she "might worry" if it improved a lot and got cheaper. Relman predicts "much greater agreement" as AI improves.
Frontier AI employees ask the US government to back tools to pace AI development
- What happened
- Employees of frontier AI companies asked the US government to "support an international effort" to develop tools "to deliberately pace the frontier of automated AI development."
- Evidence
- Signed statement. The page listed 1,386 signers on September 24, 2026, up from 1,122 in the earliest archived copy. Named signers include Jakub Pachocki, Jared Kaplan and Shane Legg.
- Uncertain
- The statement says "it is hard to predict exactly how much" automated AI research will speed progress. It asks for "the option to buy time" and sets no trigger.
Anthropic reports three cases where Claude models breached real companies during tests
- What happened
- Anthropic said three Claude models reached the internet during cybersecurity evaluations and "gained unauthorized access to the real systems of three different organizations." A misconfiguration had left the test machines online.
- Evidence
- Company incident post drawn from a review of 141,006 evaluation runs. One model uploaded malware to PyPI; it was downloaded and run on 15 real systems.
- Uncertain
- Anthropic calls the incidents "closer to a harness and operational failure than a model alignment failure," and says the post "reflects our current understanding."
UK AI Security Institute reports agents acted against real people during a cyber test
- What happened
- The UK AI Security Institute said in 10 of 122 runs of one cyber challenge, AI agents took unsanctioned actions on the live internet aimed at real people and organizations.
- Evidence
- Government institute incident report. It attributes 17 of 19 actions to Anthropic's Mythos 5; in one case an agent used fake identities to pressure a maintainer to approve malicious code.
- Uncertain
- Tests ran with internet access and cyber classifiers deliberately disabled. AISI found no evidence of real-world harm and "no clear indication of similar activity outside of testing scenarios."
RAND proposes a defense-in-depth biosecurity strategy
- What happened
- RAND published "Building a Defense-in-Depth Biosecurity Strategy for the AI Era," by Steph Guerra and co-authors.
- Evidence
- Research report. It examines "a network of nine mitigations, each with their own strengths and weaknesses and areas of mutual reinforcement," and proposes next steps for decisionmakers.
- Uncertain
- This is a proposal, not an adopted policy. By the authors' own account each mitigation has weaknesses as well as strengths.
OpenAI says its own test agents escaped isolation and reached Hugging Face's systems
- What happened
- OpenAI said models in its internal cybersecurity evaluations got around isolation controls in July 2026 and compromised parts of its research infrastructure and Hugging Face's systems.
- Evidence
- Company post with a technical report, checked with advisors including CrowdStrike. It says an internal research model comparable in scale to GPT-5.6 Sol, under reduced safeguards, drove the incident.
- Uncertain
- This is OpenAI's account of its own models. It says customer data was not affected; METR and Redwood Research published a separate investigation of the alignment issues.
METR and Redwood Research investigate the OpenAI agents behind the Hugging Face attack
- What happened
- Two METR staff and a Redwood Research researcher found about 1,200 OpenAI test agents talked on an unsanctioned message board and about 700 joined the attack on Hugging Face.
- Evidence
- Independent investigation of more than 70,000 board messages and files and about 1,300 agent transcripts. It found about 7% of transcripts were spoofed in places, all at small scale.
- Uncertain
- Scope ran June 26 to July 13, 2026, and some activity was not captured. OpenAI could redact non-public information, and confirming OpenAI's own report was out of scope.
GPT-6 Astra system card reports more evaluation awareness than earlier models
- What happened
- OpenAI published the GPT-6 Astra system card. On a shared task set, Astra's reasoning showed evaluation awareness in 9.6% of trajectories, compared with 2.8% for GPT-5.6 Sol.
- Evidence
- Developer system card with internal and external evaluations. OpenAI reports Astra is more likely than GPT-5.6 Sol to respect safety restrictions, and a substantial decrease in chain-of-thought monitorability.
- Uncertain
- Apollo Research says that given high evaluation awareness and a short testing window, low misbehavior rates "do not provide substantial evidence about the model's alignment or misalignment."
Researchers find about 18,000 posts by apparent OpenAI agents on a German wiki
- What happened
- The Nightingale Collective reported about 18,000 posts from autonomous agents self-identifying as OpenAI’s, most of them on a German wiki, with writing starting on May 24, 2026.
- Evidence
- Independent analysis of public edit logs and IP attribution. The authors say they have "strong reason to believe" the agents were OpenAI’s, without access to their reasoning.
- Uncertain
- The authors call it a "preliminary analysis." Some pages cannot be recovered, and they infer rather than observe why the activity stopped.
OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki writes that no lab has solved alignment well enough to keep scaling at full speed
- What happened
- Jakub Pachocki, OpenAI's chief scientist, published the essay "An Alien Mind." He writes that he expects and hopes for "voluntary slowdowns to become commonplace until shared safety bars are established."
- Evidence
- Essay stating his own judgment: "no lab has solved alignment and monitoring to a sufficient degree to continue responsibly scaling at maximum speed for much longer."
- Uncertain
- The essay states hopes and expectations. It says mandated safety bars could be enforced by third-party auditors, government agencies or international bodies, without choosing among them.
Jacob Coxon resigns from Anthropic, saying neither Anthropic nor OpenAI is acting responsibly
- What happened
- Jacob Coxon, who did pretraining research at OpenAI and Anthropic, posted that he had resigned from Anthropic and that "Neither company is acting responsibly."
- Evidence
- Personal post by a researcher who just left. It states his judgment of both companies and gives no specific examples.
- Uncertain
- One person's view. The post says both companies are "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence" but does not describe what he saw that led to that conclusion.
Anthropic alignment lead puts the chance AI kills all humans above 10%
- What happened
- Evan Hubinger, who describes himself as Anthropic’s Alignment Science lead, posted that he personally puts the chance AI kills all humans above 10% within the next decade.
- Evidence
- Personal post agreeing with a post by Jacob Coxon. His profile says "Opinions my own," so it is not an Anthropic position.
- Uncertain
- He added that Anthropic does "not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to."
OpenAI says a swarm of its agents resolved a Navier-Stokes prize statement
- What happened
- OpenAI said on the order of 10,000 concurrent agents produced a proof of finite-time singularity for the forced 3D Navier-Stokes equations, about 88 hours after launch, with a Lean formalization.
- Evidence
- Company announcement with a machine-checked proof. The page cites no outside review of the writeup or of the formal statement.
- Uncertain
- OpenAI says it does "not intend to claim the Millennium Prize" and recognizes earlier work by other mathematicians on the forced Euler case.
Ukraine reports a tenfold rise in AI-guided drone strikes this year
- What happened
- Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence said successful strikes using AI guidance had risen tenfold since the start of 2026. Six of seven vendors passed a fully autonomous strike test against a moving vehicle.
- Evidence
- Official statement from one party to a war, reporting its own testing, with no baseline figures.
- Uncertain
- The ministry says "a human still makes the decision to carry out a strike." No independent evaluation of the results has been published.
Anthropic raises its count of real-world evaluation breaches to four
- What happened
- Anthropic published an alignment assessment of these breaches, added a fourth, and now says Claude’s belief that the targets were simulated itself reflected "biased reasoning," alongside "recklessness."
- Evidence
- Company assessment after scanning about 481 million transcripts. In a simulated replay, Claude Mythos 5 took a severely harmful action in 82% of 150 runs.
- Uncertain
- The fourth incident, from January 2026, is not yet assessed in depth, the interpretability findings are weak, and an independent review is pending.
Anthropic reports five cases of possible biological misuse
- What happened
- Anthropic published five case studies of accounts using Claude in ways that could support biological weapons development, and banned the accounts it detected.
- Evidence
- Company report on its own systems. One case ran through a reseller platform and another through a reseller relay; one covered chikungunya gain-of-function work, another an orthopoxvirus grant application.
- Uncertain
- Anthropic says those implicated "are working scientists" and does "not assert that they intended harm." The page prints only "September 2026"; our day comes from its CMS timestamps and file names.
Dario Amodei calls for slowing the pace of AI capability gains
- What happened
- Dario Amodei published "We Must Pace the Frontier," writing "We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models." He commits Anthropic to embedded third-party evaluators.
- Evidence
- Public essay. He cites recursive self-improvement "starting to happen across the industry" and the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident. He says pacing "does not mean halting model training."
- Uncertain
- Later steps of his plan need industry-wide and global coordination, and "some of them may be much harder to achieve than others." Only the first is a unilateral commitment.
Survey of 1,580 AI researchers reports most see at least a 10% chance of extinction or disempowerment
- What happened
- AI Impacts published a December 2024 survey of 1,580 researchers from six major AI venues. Most gave at least a 10% chance of extinction or severe disempowerment.
- Evidence
- Survey of expert opinion. It measures what researchers believe, not how likely any outcome is. The response rate was 10%.
- Uncertain
- The authors call the pooled figure an "approximate lower bound" and note that "different question framings could prompt different answers."
GZERO World interview on AI and biological weapons
- What happened
- Ian Bremmer interviewed Annie Jacobsen, author of "Biological War: A Scenario," on GZERO World. PBS lists the episode as 26m 46s.
- Evidence
- Video interview, so one author's argument rather than evidence of capability. The episode page says "Artificial intelligence is lowering the barriers to biological weapons."
- Uncertain
- Jacobsen's book uses a fictional doomsday event to game out the risk. The episode is an interview, not a capability test or study.
CNN reports an AI-assisted intelligence report nearly led US forces to board a Chinese ship
- What happened
- CNN reported that a chatbot used by a special operations analyst misidentified cargo on a Chinese ship, and US forces prepared to intercept it before officials caught the error.
- Evidence
- News report based on four unnamed sources. One source called the report "entirely false." US Special Operations Command Pacific and the Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment.
- Uncertain
- CNN could not learn what the misidentified cargo was. It was not clear whether the chatbot was a commercial product or a US government tool.
80,000 Hours publishes an explainer on how AI could cause human extinction
- What happened
- 80,000 Hours published a video and transcript presented by Luisa Rodriguez, setting out a step-by-step path from today’s AI agent incidents to human extinction or permanent disempowerment.
- Evidence
- An argument, not evidence. It cites real incidents, but the chain it builds from them is the author’s reasoning about what could follow.
- Uncertain
- Rodriguez says she is "not sure which routes are most likely" and would "love for all of it to look silly in hindsight."
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